Who is really better?

Starting with functional analysis, we first examine the material. The material is numerically equal but consists of different pieces. There is an imbalance, with black having two pawns and a knight against white's rook.

It seems that black has an advantage because of the two connected passed pawns, which are not far from the promotion square, and its king is relatively safe.

After the functional analysis, the next step is to evaluate white's counter-play opportunities. The opponent has several possible plans:

• Attempt to checkmate, which should be very difficult since my king has plenty of available squares, and I also have enough defensive pieces to block any attacks.
• Double the rooks and try to capture some of my pawns or pieces, which should also be difficult because I have enough defensive pieces in place to prevent this.
• Finally, try to promote white's two pawns, but both are blocked by my pawns, which are not easy to target and capture.

In this position, I have full confidence that I can win without major problems.

Now, it’s time to calculate. By analyzing forcing moves (checks and captures), I find a tactic that allows me to win material. Even without this tactic, the position is very winning for black, due to two passed pawns that black has, and white can not efficiently counter that threat with its two pawns.

The tactic I found (with all of white’s moves being forced) is:

1. ... b5

2. Ka5 Rxa3+

This captures a free pawn with tempo.

3. Kb6

Here, I can fork with:

3. ... Nd5+

4. Kxc6 Nxc7

5. Kxc7

Now, I move on to executing the following plan: promoting the two connected passers. It’s important to do this carefully, to also prevent the opponent’s possible counter-play. I need to be faster in promotion than my opponent, at the very least (if I don’t additionally prevent it).

I start with the move:

5. ... h5

6. Rb8

This move attacks my b5 pawn. I am leaving it to be captured because I am confident that my pawns will reach the promotion square much faster than white’s. So, I proceed with the promotion plan:

6. ... h4

7. Rxb5+ Kg4

8. Rc5 h3

My pawn is now one step closer to promotion.

9. b5 h2

I am ready to achieve promotion, and my opponent is forced to play:

10. Rc1

Now, I just have to be careful of potential counter-play by my opponent, which could involve promoting the b5 pawn:

10. ... Rb3

This avoids any potential surprise that would allow my opponent to promote their pawn. If necessary, I can always sacrifice my rook for that pawn.

11. b6 Kh3

12. b7

It’s not a problem—I am ready to give up a rook for that pawn, since one of my two pawns can promote despite the white rook.

12. ... g4

13. Kd6

My opponent is preparing a tactical counter-play with 14. Rc3+ Rxc3 15. b8=Q, but this doesn’t work because its pawn is undefended, so my next move is:

13. ... Rxb7

14. Rc8

This is now easy to win because my opponent practically allows me to promote, with the idea of skewering my king and the newly promoted queen. However, that line ends up in an exchange of my queen for their rook, and since I have an additional pawn, I am fine with that exchange.

14. ... h1=Q

15. Rh8+ Kg2

16. Rxh1 Kxh1

17. Kd5

After winning my opponent’s rook, this becomes a routine endgame:

18. ... Rb4

Cutting off my opponent’s king to safely promote my remaining pawn.

From this point on, the win is straightforward: I promote the remaining pawn and checkmate the opponent’s king with the queen and a rook.